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Climate Change: 1.5°C Reality | |
| Sumita Pawar |
The World Meteorological Organisation has warned that there is a 66% chance that a global average temperature more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels will be recorded at least once between now and 2027, exceeding the target set out in the Paris climate accord.
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Leon Hermanson, one of the Met Office scientists behind the report, said, "We have never crossed 1.5°C. The current record is 1.28°C.
"It’s very likely we’re going to exceed that; we might even reach 1.5°C—it’s more likely than not that we will.
"It’s not this long-term warming that the Paris Agreement talks about, but it is an indication that as we start having these years, with 1.5°C happening more and more often, we’re getting closer and closer to having the actual long-term climate being on that threshold."
The UK’s Met Office predicts a 98% chance of such an occurrence. The WMO’s Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update report also predicts a two-in-three chance that global average temperatures in at least one of the next five years will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C limit ratified in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Mr. Taalas warned on Wednesday that gas pipelines will be under threat due to rising sea levels in the Arctic.
"Over the coming years, the Arctic will be three times warmer than average, and we will see a dramatic impact there," he said.
"The Arctic will see record changes, and it will have a big impact on the eco system and will have a big impact on the fisheries, and the gas pipelines will be endangered due to the high levels of water."
The report comes ahead of the Cop28 summit in the UAE.