Sustainable Aviation: Over Ambitious or Achievable?

If we look at the other burning sub-topic on carbon emissions, it was reported that global aviation pre-pandemic was responsible for 2.8% of global CO2 emissions. Post-pandemic, given the dip in the total number of flights, these numbers too automatically reduced. But was this enough for the long term?

Should one take a bird’s eye view of the recommendations of the Climate Change Commission regarding aviation are to develop low-carbon fuels (to form 1.5% of all liquid fuel use by 2035) and to spike the price of carbon till 2030. It has also drafted carbon budgets that allow room for international aviation and shipping to be included in the net-zero 2050 targets.

While one can plead in favour of sustainable aviation, the truth remains that for the most part, this has only been replicated on single routes, not multiple routes let alone all routes, for even one major airline. It just isn’t as straightforward as it looks. According to McKinsey, in the climate ambition pathway, 25 to 30 percent of the sector’s energy demand in 2030 could be met by SAFs.

A country’s geographic location, transport system, demographic dividend, and globally scattered families have all been strong contributors to the rise in commercial aviation. This is bad news for the sustainable side of the industry which is still working at a snail’s pace.

Many countries have decided to redirect their revenue to develop low-carbon fuels and fund climate change work, like New Zealand in the Pacific. This further serves as a role model for other countries willing to take more ambitious action. Decarbonizing aviation—including power-to-liquids and hydrogen—could require an additional 10,000 TWh of renewable electricity, comprising about 10 percent of global electricity production in 2050.

The IATA’s website clearly states, “Even if electric, hybrid, and hydrogen aircraft projects materialize as planned, a fleet rollover will extend well beyond 2050 and, in any case, will only be a solution for short and medium-haul flights for the foreseeable future.” This further means that even if all the countries were to put their best foot forward, they would still not be looking at biofuels as a panacea to the airline industry.

A complete overhaul in terms of a 100% Green Aviation, will become a reality one day but what then does one do in the interim. Supply must meet the demand of the day. “Presently, there are only biofuels available on the market and their production volume is limited,” says Jan Pechstein, Head of Corporate Emissions Management and SAF Lufthansa Group.

To speed things up, Synhelion is building an industrial-scale solar fuel plant at Brainergy Park Jülich in Germany which is slated to be up and running by 2023.

When it comes to alternatives, what really is an alternative to sustainability. The answer begs to be known. The idea of ensuring that alternatives exist is on modern research and technology.

Airbus too has been working on three concepts for the world’s first zero-emission commercial aircraft which could enter service by 2035. These include turbofan design, turboprop design, and a blended wing-body design. These concepts are said to each represent a different approach to achieving zero-emission flight, exploring various technology pathways and aerodynamic configurations in order to accelerate decarbonization of the entire aviation industry. But there’s still some time for that.

The right question is not What should we do next? BUT What should we do now? Can we really stop people from flying? While Covid brought down the numbers by 80%, causing a global economic recession and a major crisis for the industry, it must be noted that the impact on the global economy has not been nearly as bad as assumed initially. However the loss of passenger trust due to multiple restrictions and sometimes plain fear kept the profits, if any, at an all-time low. Prospective “breakthrough” technologies like hydrogen and electric plane are not an immediate or short-term achievable goal with COVID slowing down growth and the economy. As and when it does become one, it won’t be able to scale up quickly enough. Inter-country travel if shifted to more alternative domestic travel options which would include a low-emission, high-quality national public transport network, will be a load off the aviation sector.

Solar energy is a one-stop show for everything sustainable. “The beauty of solar fuels is that they are a drop-in fuel,” says Gianluca Ambrosetti, CEO and co-founder of Synhelion. “So, we can use the existing fuel distribution infrastructure. And we expect that production costs will be below €1 per liter by 2030. To generate global impact, solar fuels must be competitive with fossil fuels.” An added advantage is that the storage for thermal energy is safer and more cost-effective.

Given that the Middle East is abundant in solar power, creating this alternative to petro-dollars may take time but can be done.  Should one take the overall

progress of the Middle East into account, the region has fared better than most others according to ICAO whose Secretary-General, Dr. Fang Liu, has stated “The ICAO Middle East Region has been one of the fastest-growing in the world for passenger and cargo traffic since 2011. Aviation presently supports more than 2.4 million jobs and contributes $130 billion to GDP in MID Region GDP. Each of your states has the primary responsibility to ensure that sufficient infrastructure, human resources, training, and other capacities are in place to accommodate and manage forecast traffic growth.”

Dramatically reducing CO2 emissions by 2050, especially in an industry that needs to be fuelled all the time will not be easy, but advanced research prototypes indicate that with the right ambition and investment the current impossible is the future possible. Persistent efforts towards the enhancement of the implementation of air safety, security, and sustainability standards and recommended practices and strategies, apart from other significant initiatives, are the key to green aviation in the Middle East.