Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula

The CMIP6 models for the present and future climates, along with the range of signals, are considered for temperature and precipitation analyses under the three new future pathways of societal development called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which are: a low-forcing scenario SSP1–2.6, a medium-forcing scenario SSP2–4.5, and a high-forcing scenario SSP5–8.5.

Note that SSPs are based on five narratives that describe alternative socio-economic developments (Riahi et al. 2017): sustainable development (SSP1), middle-of-the-road development (SSP2), regional rivalry (SSP3), inequality (SSP4), and fossil–fuels development (SSP5).

Climate change is already affecting the Arabian Peninsula in dire ways.

• Extreme heat for longer durations making many areas unlivable. 
• Cities will become heat Islands. 
• Water resources which are already scarce will be stressed further. 
• Intense pressure on crops.

The above impact increases the possibility of conflicts and migration. 

Countries in this region have some of the highest wind and solar energy potentials in the world. Exploiting this wind and solar potential would strongly help these countries:

• Decrease the vulnerability of their existing energy systems
• Increase electricity production in sustainable ways (essential to meet increasing demand in the majority of the countries due to demographic and economic development as well as to the increasing need for space cooling as temperatures rise)