Middle East will have to hasten independence from oil

Friday, 17 September 2021

Superadmin

It is becoming increasingly challenging to keep the tempratures below the 1.5 degree threshold. It seems 3 degree threshold might soon become the new normal. Scientists are saying 60 percent of fossil fuels should remain underground. This will mean increased challenges for the Middle East.

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The region is home to more than 52 and 42 percent of global crude oil and natural gas proven reserves, respectively. In the past decade, the region generated 36 and 22 percent of global crude oil and natural gas, respectively.

Fossil fuel production should have peaked in 2020 and tapered there on at 3 percent per year till 2050. The pandemic saw a dip in the use of fossil fuels. But now it is rising again.

The only way to keep the temprature rise under control is by a rapid reduction in use of fossil fuels. They have to be left under ground.

The Carbon Budget - cumulative amount of CO2 that can be released in a certain period of time to keep the temprature rise under the threshold - 1.5 degree celcius, is very tight. In execution or planned fossil fuel projects are likely to upset the cart. Added to this the uncertainties from climate system feedbacks. So to deal with uncertainties we need to keep fossil fuel under ground.

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60 percent fossil fuels will have to stay underground to meet 1.5 degree target.

Some countries are taking the challenge head-on. An alliance by Costa Rica and Denmark will be launched at the crucial United Nations Climate Change Conference, in Glasgow, this year, asking states to stop issuing fossil-fuel exploration permits.

The political will required is enormous. The world knows what needs to be done. Action is of paramount importance.

The implications for Middle East are enormous. The leadership is already working on moving away from Oil. But the urgency might be more than anticipated. A more aggressive action plan is required.